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"What Does the Future Hold for Electric Bikes?" |
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| On a rare occasion we are told by a person showing interest in electric
bikes that he/she intends to postpone a purchase "until electric bikes become
better and cheaper". How valid are such assumptions? Sophisticated electric-assisted bikes by world leaders LAfree (Giant Bicycle), and Panasonic (National) have evolved over many years, and are merely new to the U.S. market. Over one million electric bikes were sold over the last five year period in Japan, where consumers are highly discerning and exacting. Given how advanced electric bikes already are will they get significantly "better" over the next few years? Highly unlikely. Bikes such as LAfree Lite, and the Panasonic e-Folder are state-of-the-art. Considering the commitment and resources of the manufacturers these models should remain at the cutting edge for years to come. Will high value bikes be offered at lower prices soon? On the contrary. Giant Bicycle brought out the LAFree Sport at below $1,000 on an introductory basis. Considering that this model has rated #1 in worldwide testing (acing bikes costing up to several times more), and taking into account its specification, componentry, performance, quality, reliability, product support etc we can only expect prices on this level of bikes to rise (unless production is taken over by deep pocketed charitable foundations). Will there be lower-end bikes (with "limited" product support) available at (much) lower prices? Absolutely, this is the case already. But while there are e.g. several lower priced automobiles on the market that offer a satisfactory ownership experience we would have to say that this may mostly not prove to be the case with low priced electric bikes. One notable exception is the quality Merida PowerCycle but its low $695 price should be temporary. How will electric bike designs evolve? If we can assume serious demand from customers with little or no use for those fitness-conducive, obsolete devices called pedals, preferring instead to ride on electric power only one would assume that throttled-controlled electric bike models will become more powerful, and unavoidably remain heavy. As small scooters are often tolerated by law enforcement, and are even legal in a few states (as a special category motor vehicle) would one not expect some of the above customers to pick a scooter rather than a bike? As scooters are simpler than bikes we are already seeing powerful scooters (such as the $495 Tiger) priced much lower than throttled bikes. For those among us who shall still prefer an electric bike closely akin to a regular bicycle (as far as rider enjoyment, nimble handling, ease of pedaling also in power-off mode, light weight, quiet operation etc) the pedal-activated LAFree Lite, and Panasonic should be the designs to emulate. Other electric bikes may shed their pedals completely, put on weight, roll on fatter tires, be legally classified as mopeds or motorcycles (requiring driver's license, registration, and be banned from bike lanes, and trails). Of course, these already exist on the U.S. market (eGo, Voloci et al). Stay tuned... |
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Eric Sundin Electric Vehicles Northwest Seattle, WA http://www.ebikesnw.com 206/547-4621
For additional information on these e-bikes check out: |
